Maui Real Estate Market Update - June 2022

Posted by Alex Cortez on Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 at 12:27pm.

Maui Real Estate Market Update 2022
Navigating through the Maui Real Estate Market in 2022?

Much is being said about the state of the real estate market, with some pundits sticking their head in the sand saying nothing has changed and on the opposite end, some saying the sky is falling.  As a service to our clients and site visitors, we would like to briefly discuss the Maui real estate market through the lens of statistics. 

To start, let's recognize that real estate trends / conditions are incredibly locally-based and even within an area, there could be significantly different conditions across micro-markets. So although back in San Francisco the market may be doing one thing, we may be seeing something very different on Maui - and even within Maui, conditions in Wailea may be widely different than in Wailuku, as examples.


Most Maui experts agree the velocity within which the market has shifted has not been seen before, which makes speculating about the future a guess at best. However, looking at pertinent metrics can tell us more about what we're currently seeing. So let's start with absorption. Take a look at the chart below which details the number of units going into escrow ('pending') per week, from the beginning of the year. For the first 3 months of 2022, there were roughly 70 to 90 listings going into escrow every week. That dipped into the 60's for April, then decreased slightly more from May into the 50's.  To put into perspective, in 2019 which was an active year pre-COVID, on average there were 58.9 properties going into escrow per week. 

Pending Maui Real Estate Sales

Similarly, the number of sales had been on an abnormal high through the beginning of the year (see chart below) carrying over from the milestone 2021. The numbers have been somewhat inconsistent hovering from the 70's to a couple of weeks with nearly 100. For context, in 2019, on average there were 58.2 properties recorded as sold per week. Keep in mind that the 'bump' down in the market takes time to reflect on recorded sales, as the escrow period generally takes anywhere between 30 to 60 days. So if there is a discernible dip in amount of sales, we'll feel it more throughout the upcoming summer months.

Maui real estate market update - sold


With the shifting market, many have been left wondering how to be positioned to meet their real estate needs in Hawaii market that is seemingly resetting. For many Sellers, that has been an adjustment in expectations and what seemed to be the opportune time to sell has turned into changing price to meet Buyer demand. The high demand of the beginning of the year led a comparatively lower amount of Seller to adjust pricing, whereas in the April/May period, prices changes have increased significantly. Take a look at the chart below, whereas by the middle of April, savvy Sellers saw that the market was shifting and decided to price more aggressively to elicit offers.

Maui Real Estate Price Changes

New Inventory

The big story since the post-pandemic recovery started in Q3 of 2020 has been the lack of inventory. In some micro-markets, that was true but in many others, inventory levels was consistent to pre-COVID but it seemed "low" due to the higher demand, as inventory wasn't enough to meet the new influx of Buyers. Some pundits have speculated that the plateau of the market would drive on-the-fence Sellers to put their properties on the market. Let's take a look at below. Besides a couple of anomalies, inventory has been consistently 70-90 new listings per week.

Maui Real Estate New listings 2022


To start, the Maui real estate market continues to be remarkably fluid and expectations are that market trends / conditions will continue to evolve. The rise in interest rates is an interest factor to keep an eye on, with rates increasing rapidly throughout the past 6 months, from the low 3%'s for a 30 year mortgage now approaching 6% and many expecting to hit 7% before the year's end, thereby decreasing purchasing power by prospective Buyers. Many expect inventory to increase throughout the year, with Sellers chasing the market down to get the tail of the height, yet that may prove to be an unmet expectation: if Sellers didn't act when the market was bearing unsupported sales price, then what motivation would there be to jump on the market now? Price adjustments will be a continued necessity as many had priced their properties based on Q1 pricing (often above it) and must adjust to the new market environment. Lack of new construction has historically kept pricing in check on the Maui market, preventing any sudden declines, and that may prove a key factor in keeping values stable through the shift. Our team maintains a keen eye on the market as it changes in real time, to discuss particulars regarding a specific micro-market, segment, or area, reach out by the form below or call 808.385.5034.

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Specializing in Makena and Wailea real estate, Alex Cortez is fully dedicated to representing his clients ethically and diligently. Contact him at 808.385.5034 or for more information.

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